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13 million in the US could become climate refugees: the county affected

#Cosmoread: Sea level rise from the worst comes to pass, and then more than 13 million Americans could become climate refugees by 2100, new research shows.

Climate change, caused by rising seas could flood hundreds of permanent US counties, according to the study. Hardest hit Miami-Dade County, Florida, where 2 million people could be forced to move can be. In fact, these potential Florida is home to about half of the US climate refugees.

“Southern African-Americans from the south to the north of the large amount of great advantage if we are talking about it, we do not know enough of the sea level rise is very similar,” said study co author Matthew Hauer, a doctoral candidate at the University of Georgia in Athens demographics.

However, city, county, state and local governments move to reduce some of these effects, while working to stem global climate change could mean the worst case never comes to pass, you can take If researchers Paper.

Growing coastal populations

Previous studies from the current population level, climate change will affect how many people on the basis of estimates provided. However, the country’s fastest-growing areas are located on some of the beaches, low-lying areas vulnerable to climate change.

How many people will be affected in the future if current growth rates are sustained in order to get a better understanding of, Hauer and colleagues around the continental United States Census data analyzed by counties? Team historic growth seen in coastal areas, and then used those numbers to project future population levels. Based on estimates, the study found that the population in coastal areas could be up to three times the current level.

The team then National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates of sea level rise combined with those estimates.

NOAA, in the worst case scenario, the NOAA Oceans sustainable coastal flooding account for about 6 feet (1.8 meters), on average, will increase in 2100 but not by increasing the number and intensity of storms as other potential threats of climate change, or storm surges.

If there are no climate change mitigation, caused 13 million people to move their homes will be forced to be partially submerged under water, the researchers found. Sea-level rise is only 3 feet (0.9 m) with a better scenario, only 42 million people will be forced to move, the study found.


Of course, a foregone conclusion, there are millions displaced. For one, the historical growth rate for future growth may not be a good predictor; Some low-lying coastal areas are already so congested that they are not likely to grow in the future, others actively sensitive areas or to take steps to reduce climate impacts can be discouraging development, Hauer said .

Now, climate change policy from the bottom up often, county- and city-level zoning is governed by laws, Hauer said.

However, counties, cities and states to avoid a forced mass exodus may take a variety of steps, he said.

“You get security, you home and you also have to retreat” Hauer told.

For example, in some areas, sea walls or marsh restoration of sea-level rise may be sufficient to prevent the worst effects, while in other places, zoning laws that discourage the clever approach of the future building will be fully , Hauer said.

“New York City than New Orleans, says differently is going to be able to adapt,” Hauer said.